Linn Maung
Operation 1027 in Myanmar’s Shan State has boosted China’s efforts to eradicate forced labor scams, disrupted trade and led to a nationwide attack by resistance forces. Beijing fears economic hardship and potential energy security issues in southwestern provinces. Beijing’s efforts to consolidate transnational crime success in Myanmar are misguided. Fragmenting armed resistance and forcing cease-fires is a misguided approach to peacemaking, ignoring lessons from failed initiatives. China’s use of Operation 1027 in crackdowns reveals effective strategies against the Myanmar Army.
Criminal syndicates in the US are redirecting scams and human trafficking away from China, causing a potential escalation in scams targeting Americans and undermining global human security. China has been urging Myanmar’s Junta Chief, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, to crack down on cross-border scam operations using Chinese Nationals as forced labor. Despite no response, China has considered arresting militia leaders and deploying Chinese police in Kokang Region.
China backed Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) announced Operation 1027 to eliminate scam syndicates and defeat the military dictatorship. China secured a pledge from Min Aung Hlaing to fully address the problem by the end of 2023.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s victory in Kokang led to fear and a surge in criminal activities. Over 7,000 people escaped to China,while others were sent to Thailand. On November 12, the Chinese government arrested Ming Xuechang, the Myanmar army border guard force leader, and his relatives. The Myanmar army deployed troops to hunt down and execute Ming Xuechang, causing Min Aung Hlaing to dismantle the BGF and destroy his legacy.
The Myanmar Army’s weakness in the border area revealed its weakness against ethnic armies and People’s Defense Forces. To counter this, the army organized a protest against China, accusing China of interfering in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
This bolstered the MNDAA’s support in China, displaying the military’s growing anti-China sentiments on WeChat and reiterating its call to eradicate the “ military dictatorship” . The junta blamed the US, Taiwan, and Timor-Leste for Myanmar’s battlefield failures and sought Chinese help.
They invited Chinese intellectuals to Myanmar and accused the EAOs of drug lords and Western influence. Operation 1027 spread across Myanmar, causing unprecedented losses. China responded with military operations, a live-fire exercise, and a naval visit to Yangon, signaling its determination to achieve stability and protect its strategic interests.China has offered assistance to the Myanmar army, but it comes at a high cost.
On December 10, Chinese police arrested 10 Kokang BGF elites, including Bai Suocheng, who defected from the MNDAA. This debasement of the Myanmar army means surrendering Kokang to the MNDAA and its allies, and may undermine the military’s commitments to other BGFs, which maintain criminal empires critical to the army’s strategic positions on Thai and Chinese border.
The Myanmar army may maintain control over Kokang territory if it fails to act on Chinese warrants, risking further provoking China. The MNDAA may capture BGF leaders and hand them over to China, strengthening China’s preference for the Three Brotherhood Alliance for stability from its border. Once installed, the MNDAA will become heavily dependent on China, potentially limiting its ability to continue.
China’s strategy to dismantle anti-junta resistance in Myanmar involves helping armed groups achieve victories in exchange for avoiding coalitions for regime change. This could be seen as a lifeline for the Myanmar army and a means to maximize Chinese influence. However, this strategy is unlikely to be sustainable over the long term due to its failure to recognize the illegitimacy of the Myanmar army and its potential to undermine its legitimacy.
China’s actions indicate it will use leverage to stabilize trade routes and push fighting away from its border. Once installed, the MNDAA will become heavily dependent on China, potentially limiting its ability to continue. China’s strategy to dismantle anti-junta resistance in Myanmar involves helping armed groups achieve victories in exchange for avoiding coalitions for regime change.
This could be seen as a lifeline for the Myanmar army and a means to maximize Chinese influence. However, this strategy is unlikely to be sustainable over the long term due to its failure to recognize the illegitimacy of the Myanmar army and its potential to undermine its legitimacy.
#MeKongNews
