China has been using the Ethnic Armed Groups (EAOs) to its advantage for decades, violating its own pledge of “non interference” while meddling in domestic affairs in Myanmar. But without a question, as time has gone on, EAOs have also developed the negotiating skills and bravery to oppose.
Following the start of Operation 1027 by the China-backed Three Brother Alliance comprising the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Taang National Liberation Army, northern Myanmar—better known as the gateway to China—became a war zone. Although China started the effort to stop the online gaming and scamming activities in Laukkhai, it appears that China has gradually lost control and 3BHA is growing independently and at its own speed. China called on the EAO leadership last week to address the matter urgently, but it doesn’t appear that any instructions have been implemented. China is more worried about bilateral trade than the safety of civilians living in the area of conflict. China has increased border security with Myanmar in addition tonot only conducted out PLA exercises to safeguard its borders but also to stop the influx of refugees. China has made it clear that commerce and economic operations come above the lives of civilians.
It is also unexpected to witness images going viral on social media showing Chinese residents of Kokang being forced along fence number 127 by their own Chinese border security forces as they attempt to cross to avoid the airstrikes by the Myanmar Air Force. A video has caused distress among Myanmar’s Chinese community. Through Muse and Chinshewah, the Kokang region controls almost 91% of the bilateral trade between Myanmar and China; however, since operation 1027, trade gates have been shuttered and all vehicular movement has been halted. It’s time to reflect on whether Operation 1027 improved the lot of the Kokang people or made it worse for them. With no food or necessities, over a lakh people were internally displaced.
Surprisingly, Burmese people now welcome Chinese meddling instead of resisting it. China can clearly alter dynamics in Myanmar whenever it feels like it after Ops. 2027. Within Myanmar, “Shan State” evolved into a Chinese colony.
Social media may be emphasising the achievements of Operations 1027 and 1111, but the real world is not like that. A major humanitarian crisis is about to arise along with other problems, and neither the Junta nor the rebel forces have a “B” plan in place to control the impact. Junta is trying to weaken the rebel forces by implementing the Food, Information, Fund, and Recruitment (FIFR) four-cut policy. It remains to be seen if opposition organisations are able to withstand the pressure or give up.
China has two goals in mind. The first is to get things back to normal along the Oriental Highway so that bilateral trade can flow and CMEC projects can be carried out without interruption. The economy of Northern Myanmar is solely dependent on trade with China, and the extractive industries in Shan and Kachin are dependent on China.
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