~ Linn Maung ~

The verified reports about Taiwanese armed forces personnel undergoing training in strategic and tactical battle operations in the US have signalled the transparent and explicit American support to Taiwan against Chinese threats. As the reinvigorated US efforts appear to be aiming at improving the Taiwanese capabilities, things may turn complicated for Beijing. There could be a decline in Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait, even as its psychological and cognitive manipulation targeting the Taiwanese population may suffer a setback.

There had been reports about the participation of Taiwanese in the drills in the US, but American officials kept mum. This time, however, a senior US military official acknowledged the participation of over 500 Taiwanese soldiers in this year’s Northern Strike drills in Michigan. Notably, Taiwanese forces have been part of the US drill every year since 2021, reported Star and Stripes, a news outlet authorised by the US Department of Defence.

In May this year, retired US Navy admiral Mark Montgomery told the US House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition that more Taiwanese forces were supposed to be trained in the handling of US weapons. “That’s about 500 people. Now it needs to be 1,000, if we’re going to give them billions of dollars in assistance, tens of billions of dollars’ worth of US gear. It makes sense that we’d be over there training and working,” he said.

A few years ago, then-President Tsai Ing-wen revealed the presence of US military personnel on Taiwan. However, things remained obscure as the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent nation but pledges to protect it from external threats, mainly China. In recent years US military has been seen assisting Taiwan in adopting an asymmetric defence approach and empowering the Taiwanese military with training and weapon support.

The US intended to support Taiwan in developing strong resilience, becoming capable of deterring, degrading and delaying potential Chinese aggressions, said then US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Michael Chase. “We support Taiwan’s military in its efforts to acquire asymmetric warfare capabilities that are low-cost, mobile, distributed, resilient and lethal,” he said.  “Below the level of armed conflicts, Taiwan’s capabilities to respond effectively in an asymmetric way against China’s use of grey-zone military activities are also important.”

Now, the latest news about Taiwan troop training in the US suggested that the bilateral defence cooperation was becoming more transparent and normalised, said Max Lo of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei-based think tank. “The disclosure is significant. It shows Washington wants Taiwan’s involvement to be seen, not hidden,” he said. The Taiwan-US joint drill helped act as a deterrent to China as well as improve trust in the Taiwanese people, Lo added.

As expected, the report fetched a strong reaction from China even as it issued a warning to the US. “We firmly oppose any form of official exchanges and military contacts between the United States and Taiwan, oppose US interference in China’s internal affairs, and attempts to provoke and stir up trouble,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin. Warning the US against crossing the “red line”, Chinese military official Zhang Xiaogang said the troop training gave a “seriously wrong signal” to the Taiwan independence.

The revelation, however, is going to be problematic for China as it reduces the effectiveness of Chinese aggression and coercion in the Taiwan Strait, and hampers invasion plans as risks, costs and uncertainty mount. Richard C. Bush, senior fellow at Washington D.C.-based Brookings Institution, said the US believes symmetric defence would be in Taiwan’s advantage. “The United States has been much more public than previously about its actions to support Taiwan. The purpose: to counter Beijing’s effort to undermine Taiwan psychologically,” he said.

The US has begun upgrading Taiwanese military infrastructure in recent years, which has bolstered the Taiwanese people’s confidence. “The Chinese Communists spend so much time and effort on these things but most people don’t pay much attention,” said Lin Hui-tsung from Taiwan’s Tiananmu. Thus, the troop training by the US can complicate Beijing’s political and military warfare narrative. During the 10-day live-fire Han Kuang drills, Abrams tanks and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, both procured from the US, were used.

All this increases the cost of the war, which China would not like to see the expenses on the invasion are more than its worth. “Deterrence is real; deterrence is strong, said Ely Ratner, the US Assistant Secretary for the Indo-Pacific. “What we are trying to do is ensure when Beijing looks at the problem, it decides today is not the day.”

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