Linn Maung
Bangladesh’s political scenario is currently tumultuous. Under the interim government, Islamist parties are growing in strength- the Jamaat is returning to electoral politics after being banned for a decade. Under these circumstances, there is a need to revisit the country’s bilateral ties with its neighbours and gauge how these may be affected by the shift in political power in Dhaka.
The political upheaval in Bangladesh, culminating in the removal of the elected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has reignited concerns about the country’s expansionist ambitions. Radical Islamist groups, now in power, have openly expressed their desire to establish a “Greater Bangladesh,” a territory that would encompass parts of India’s northeastern region.
The proposed “Greater Bangladesh” would Include West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland and Parts of Myanmar.
While Bangladesh lacks the military might or resources to directly invade India, its sheer population of over 171.2 million – significantly larger than that of the entire northeastern region – poses a significant demographic threat.
The history of infiltration from Bangladesh into India dates back decades. The porous border and the allure of economic opportunities have facilitated the influx of millions of Bangladeshis, many of whom have settled illegally. The secularist policies of previous Indian governments have inadvertently encouraged this influx. The majority of infiltrators have been Muslims. The issue is not merely one of migration but one of demographic shifts that have the potential to influence the socio-political landscape of India’s border states. Illegal Bangladeshi immigrants have found political and economic opportunities in India, often receiving support from certain political parties seeking to expand their vote base.
The rise of Islamist forces in Bangladesh, combined with this historical infiltration, presents a significant challenge to India’s internal security. The notion of a ‘Greater Bangladesh’ may seem far-fetched militarily, but it serves as an ideological rallying point for radical elements in the region. Bangladesh’s population density, coupled with the porous borders it shares with india, provides a fertile ground for demographic and cultural influence in the bordering Indian states.
The northeastern states, already vulnerable due to insurgencies, ethnic tensions, and underdevelopment, could face additional pressures If Bangladesh’s expansionist rhetoric gains traction. States like Assam and Tripura have already seen significant demographic shifts due to illegal immigration, which has often led to ethnic and communal tensions.
Moreover, Bangladesh’s aspirations could also have wider regional implications. West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha are crucial for India’s economic and strategic security, with Kolkata serving as a major port and the northeastern region acting as a gateway to Southeast Asia. Any destabilisation in this region could have severe economic and security consequences.
As the Indo-Pacific gains increased geostrategic importance, Bangladesh has become an important country and a coveted ally in the region for several reasons. Foremost is its location in the north of the Bay of Bengal and close to the confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which together form the Indo-Pacific.
Bangladesh is strategically positioned for countries seeking a foothold in the Bay and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Geographically, Bangladesh is also ideally located to provide its landlocked hinterland (comprising India’s Northeast and the Himalayan kingdoms of Nepal and Bhutan) and neighbouring countries such as China with convenient access to the sea.The new Islamist dispensation is aware that its unique location allows Bangladesh to overlook important chokepoints and shipping routes through which vital energy imports and other resources are ferried across the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea before entering the Strait of Malacca.
These proponents feel that as Bangladesh is situated at the juncture of South and Southeast Asia, the country can break out of the South Asia mould and become a more global power, by expanding towards Southeast Asia, into Myanmar, particularly expanding into Rohingya territory.
With a 580-km coastline, Bangladesh considers the Bay of Bengal its extended territory. It has substantial unexplored gas reserves in the Bay, and more than 90 percent of its international trade is carried out via the sea. The proponents of the ‘Greater Bangladesh’ idea are keen to make the most of the country’s geostrategic positioning.
Even as Bangladesh plays host to millions of Rohingya Muslims, there are advocates in the interim government and Islamist parties who believe that Dhaka should not be just acting on humanitarian grounds, rather as a strategic actor weighing the pros and cons of its refugee policies. Cox’s Bazar, in southeastern Bangladesh, houses nearly one million Rohingya refugees and Islamist radicals are likely to use this strength against Myanmar to launch attacks in the border and beyond. Radical Islamic militancy outfit Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which has received training from Bangladesh-based Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and has links with Jamaat-e-Islami, is involved in murders in the Rakhine region, and members of this outfit regularly use the Bangladesh-Myanmar border areas, and commit a series of crimes while they also run drug peddling, arms trafficking, human trafficking, and kidnapping. Every few days, there is relentless cross-border gunfire and shelling between the Bangladesh and Myanmar military. communal tensions are being flared by Bangladesh, and this has serious implications for Myanmar as a whole. The government faces a huge challenge in calibrating and integrating its political, policy and security responses to ensure that violence at the border and Rakhine does not escalate and intercommunal tensions are kept under control.
While Bangladesh may lack the military capabilities to physically expand its borders, the demographic pressures it can exert on India and Myanmar are real and concerning. The radical Islamist takeover in Bangladesh and the revival of the ‘Greater Bangladesh’ idea should serve as a wake- up call for policymakers in Myanmar and India. Since the political upheaval in Bangladesh there has been a migration of people into Myanmar from Bangladesh. A growing number of people are arriving at the Myanmar border as atrocities on minorities in Bangladesh continue to push people out of their hometowns.
The possible expanded role of the military in a post-Hasina order cannot be dismissed given Bangladesh’s history of military coups and army rule. Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo has reported that top army and police officials played a critical role in convincing secular leader Sheikh Hasina to step down, paving the way for a pro-Islamist government to take over. Already there is a more belligerent tone in the Bangladesh armed forces attitude towards India and Myanmar.
The idea of a Greater Bangladesh is also pushed through propaganda by which Islamists project Bangladesh as the protector of the Bengali culture and the land of the real Bengalis, while India under the current dispensation is projected as the Hindi hegemonic state that is out to destroy the Bengali language. In order to save their Bengali identity, the ultimate goal of the Bengalis of West Bengal should be to secede from India and merge with Bangladesh. Therefore it is a real battle of projection in which the idea of a united and greater Bengal is being quietly pushed through. The Islamlists in Bangladesh are already in cahoots with homegrown Islamist radicals in West Bengal, to create an existential crisis in India.
India must strengthen its border security, crack down on illegal immigration, and diplomatically engage with Bangladesh to ensure that these expansionist fantasies do not escalate into real threats to India’s territorial integrity. At the same time, regional cooperation must be reinforced to ensure that radical ideologies do not destabilise the delicate balance in South Asia.
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