Linn Maung
“South China Sea Tensions Escalate Amidst Confrontations” delves into the escalating tensions in the South China Sea. The narrative focuses on the recent months’ multiple confrontations between Chinese and Philippine ships in this crucial waterway, underscoring the region’s growing geopolitical significance.
As per expert analysis, the South China Sea could serve as a barometer for China to measure the U.S. reaction towards its allies, as the communist nation continues to broaden its military reach in this economically crucial waterway.
The South China Sea has been a hotbed of tension, with numerous face-offs between Chinese and Filipino vessels in recent months. This vital waterway has been the stage for these maritime encounters.
A notable incident occurred on June 17, where a confrontation near the Second Thomas Shoal, a part of the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, resulted in injuries to Filipino personnel and damage to their vessels. The clash involved boats from Manila and Beijing, as reported by the Philippines.
The Defense Ministry of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has accused the Philippines of “deliberately and dangerously” encroaching upon their naval vessels, leading to the collision. On the other hand, the Foreign Ministry of the Philippines holds the “illegal and aggressive actions” of the Chinese authorities responsible for the mishap.
In 2016, an international court ruling dismissed the CCP’s territorial claims over waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, asserting that the island falls within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. However, the CCP disregarded the verdict from the U.N.-affiliated court in The Hague, Netherlands, and declined to partake in the arbitration process.
June Teufel Dreyer, a renowned scholar on U.S.–China relations and a Political Science professor at the University of Miami, observed that the Chinese regime has been consistently applying pressure on the Philippines for a long time.
“The Chinese regime has been consistently exerting pressure on the Philippines over an extended period,” she conveyed to The Epoch Times on June 22.
Rodrigo Roa Duterte, the former President of the Philippines, had adopted a policy favoring China and oscillated between the United States and China on numerous occasions. This led to a decline in the relationship between the Philippines and the United States. However, the scenario altered in 2022 with the commencement of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s term in office.
While Mr. Marcos wants to deter the CCP, Ms. Teufel Dreyer cautioned that he has few resources to accomplish that “Mr. Marcos indeed has the intention to resist,” she commented. “However, his resources for doing so are quite limited. Furthermore, he is uncertain about the extent of support he can expect from the United States, given that the country is engaged, albeit not officially, in two conflicts – one in Ukraine against Russia and another in Israel against Hamas.”
Other specialists describe China’s approach as being “dual-faceted.” Beijing, on one side, imposes pressure “via external military drills conducted from outside.” Conversely, it aims to exert influence through “operations of influence” conducted within the nation itself.
Following the sea dispute between the Philippines and China, a telephonic conversation took place on June 19 between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo. During this conversation, Blinken underscored the United States’ unwavering obligations to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty, as stated by the State Department.
In May 2023, during Mr. Marcos’s trip to the United States, both parties reiterated their longstanding security partnership. President Joe Biden affirmed that the United States’ defense pledge to the Philippines is unshakeable.
Certain specialists opine that the United States would exercise “extreme caution” in practice when it comes to activating the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This bilateral defense pact obliges both nations to stand by each other in the event of an attack by a foreign entity.
Moreover, the absence of a regional base like Subic Bay for the United States could pose certain challenges in terms of implementation. Subic Bay, which ceased operations in 1992, used to be a significant stronghold for the U.S. military in the South China Sea.
The treaty would be activated by the United States if the Chinese regime were to launch a full-scale invasion. However, such a scenario is unlikely to occur, given that the Chinese government is astute and would refrain from taking such a drastic step.
The Chinese regime might employ its military assertiveness in the South China Sea as a litmus test for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and to assess the U.S. commitment to safeguarding its allies. However, the circumstances in Taiwan are markedly distinct from those in the Philippines.
Taiwan has demonstrated a greater willingness and ability to retaliate than the Philippines. Manila, on the other hand, plans to depend on the assistance of its allies. The Philippines typically allow the United States to take a stand for them. In essence, they would permit the United States to engage in a conflict with China, while essentially remaining on the sidelines.
This is why the United States has significantly more at stake in Taiwan than in the Philippines. “China doesn’t hesitate to “test the waters’ in the South China Sea,” to observe the reactions from the U.S.
