Linn Maung
Beginning in mid-December 2023, Kunming has emerged as the focal point of numerous conversations between the representatives of the SAC and two (MNDAA & TNLA) of the three members of the Three Brother Alliance (3BHA).
The MNDAA appears to have given in to Chinese pressure for obvious reasons, as seen by the observed truce (Dec. 11–17), while the TNLA has not stopped its offensives. Even if it does not have a majority in these new territories, TNLA is nevertheless making inroads into the neighbourhood.
Even though TNLA put a stop to their unfeasible expansion plan after KIA’s warning, it is still pursuing the objective of becoming an independent state inside Shan State.
The development of 3BHA in Shan State undoubtedly compelled other EAOs to defend their domain, and the ensuing peace and ceasefire between the SSPP and RCSS was the result of that impending danger.
It also demonstrated that, should the resistance persist, SAC’s polarising tactic remains effective. SAC knows that the only way to defeat the Ethnics is through division, which is why she will never permit unity among them.
In addition to the current four self-administrative zones (Kokang, Danu, Lau, and Palaung) and one self-administrative zone (Wa), SAC is prepared to establish new territories in the Shan state.
SAC has chosen a “ territorial trading strategy” with TNLA and MNDAA during talks in Yunnan, but it makes sure that two important Sino-Myanmar commercial gateways, Muse and Chinshwewah, be opened right away to allow for the resumption of bilateral commerce and the restoration of business. Given that SAC accounts for more than 90% of bilateral trade, China also favours Muse & Chinshwewah’s continued membership in the organisation over EAOs. Furthermore, SAC will oversee Chinese interests generally, something that EAOs never will. Business comes first even though Chinese and EAO bloodlines are the same.
It has been made clear to Arakan Army, the third member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, that they have no business operating in Shan State and should remain impartial. Instead, AA ought to have a grateful attitude towards Shans. Conversely, China has also advised SAC to exercise prudence in Rakhine and reduce conflict, particularly in the three northern districts of Rakhine that border Bangladesh. China continues to place more importance on CMEC project execution in Rakhine than AA does.
Since they are adept at hiding and seeking on their home front and find it impossible to engage a traditional battle against a seasoned soldier, EAOs will never move outside of their comfort zone. Had things turned out differently, Mandalay and Yangon would have collapsed by now, but things are currently normal for the company. Nowadays, people’s main worry is their own means of subsistence; however, one cannot live long on charity or foreign help, while the Army remains strong against all odds and is rarely affected by the likes, dislikes, or emotions of the public.
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