~ Linn Maung ~

China’s much-publicized zero-tariff initiative for African countries is designed less to help Africa grow and more to tighten China’s political grip on the Global South. Under the new plan, China has offered zero-tariff access to exports from 55 African countries a policy that President Xi Jinping says will cover “100% of tariff lines. It may sound like a lifeline for African economies struggling to expand exports but in reality, the real beneficiary will be China itself.

The latest initiative is in sync with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to deepen infrastructure and trade connectivity across Asia and Africa. While zero tariff opens certain market opportunities for African producers, it also poses risks of creating deeper dependency on Beijing economically and politically. Experts who have long studied China–Africa relations note that many African governments, particularly those of poor and underdeveloped nations, have failed to grasp the underlying motives behind Beijing’s charm offensive.

Despite China’s rhetoric of partnership, Africa’s trade with Beijing is imbalanced. Roughly 70% of African exports to China consist of extractive commodities, but their volume is insignificant when compared with China’s trade with other regions. Africa doesn’t even rank among Beijing’s top trading partners; it sits just above Oceania. In 2024, China’s two-way trade with Africa was estimated at $300 billion less than 5% of its total global trade, which topped $6.1 trillion. This hardly reflects a relationship of equals.

Africa mostly exports raw materials and imports finished goods, perpetuating a structural trade deficit that benefits Chinese manufacturers. Beijing does not rely on African oil, minerals, or timber — it sources these in abundance from Russia and Brazil. The only exception is cobalt, largely imported from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

China needs Africa for political reasons. In international forums such as the United Nations, African countries — which together represent nearly one-third of UN member states — often vote as a bloc. Their support is invaluable to Beijing, especially on sensitive issues like human rights, digital governance, and technology regulation, where China seeks to reshape global norms.

To secure this alignment, Beijing has strategically offered incentives that sound generous but yield little real benefit. These gestures — such as debt relief, scholarships, and now tariff exemptions — cost China relatively little but help maintain its influence and image as Africa’s “all-weather friend.”

Unfortunately, as several experts point out, African governments rarely use their collective leverage to negotiate better terms. Instead, they often give away support for free. This pattern was evident during the launch of China’s Global Governance Initiative, where African endorsements flowed easily, even when the continent’s interests were not directly served.

Experts also pointed out that the zero-tariff policy comes with subtle risks. Greater reliance on Chinese markets could undermine Africa’s economic sovereignty. A surge in cheap Chinese goods might overwhelm local industries, leading to factory closures and job losses. The consequences are likely to be beyond economics. As Beijing strengthens its economic footprint, African nations may find their policy independence shrinking, especially in areas where China’s political or strategic interests are at stake.

China’s growing presence in Africa coincides with the United States’ retreat from global engagement, particularly after Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025. This vacuum has allowed Beijing to position itself as Africa’s dominant external partner — not just in trade, but also in technology and security cooperation. Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE built much of Africa’s 3G and 4G infrastructure, giving Beijing a strong foothold in the continent’s digital landscape. While African IT systems are still relatively diversified, China’s role in shaping technical standards gives it a powerful geopolitical advantage.

As far as African nations are concerned, except Eswatini (Swaziland) every African country maintains diplomatic ties with China. In the UN, Africa consistently aligns with Beijing more than with any other major power. This alignment stems partly from shared positions on global issues — and partly from China’s expanding economic influence.

Both sides share a common skepticism toward the West, frequently accusing the U.S. and Europe of “double standards” — whether on climate change, development aid, or the Palestinian question. African governments also tend to back China’s stance on its territorial disputes, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea.

All African states that recognize Beijing endorse the One China principle, describing Taiwan as an inseparable part of the People’s Republic. Many have even declared “firm support” for China’s efforts — potentially including the use of force — to achieve reunification.

Most African governments avoid criticizing China’s policies toward its Uyghur Muslim minority, despite international reports of human rights abuses. Collectively, their silence lends legitimacy to Beijing’s authoritarian political model on the world stage.

Another dimension of China’s influence lies in its party diplomacy. Through the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CCP-ID), Beijing maintains direct ties with ruling and opposition parties across Africa. These relationships, often conducted outside formal diplomatic channels, strengthen ideological bonds and enhance China’s soft power.

In countries where one party dominates politics, these exchanges acquire special significance — blurring the line between diplomacy and political patronage.

China’s message that Africa “naturally belongs” in its geopolitical camp should be treated with caution. The zero-tariff initiative may look like a trade opportunity, but in reality, it deepens dependency and strengthens Beijing’s strategic reach.

Until African leaders recognize the bargaining power of their collective political support, China will continue to gain — economically, diplomatically, and ideologically — at little cost to itself. It is time that the global community gear up to check China from expanding its base in Africa before it is too late.

1:https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kellykingsley_africachinatrade-zerotariffopportunities-activity-7341013177926602753-VKcE

2: https://www.ui.se/globalassets/ui.se-eng/publications/other-publications/chinas-interests-in-africa_nkk_2025.pdf

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