Linn Maung
Looking back at events since January 1, 2024, it appears that China has assumed the role of de facto dictator in Myanmar. The cleverly prepared statement of NUG on the new year accepting “ One China Policy” and signing of “ Haigeng Agreement” between Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood Alliance in Kunming(Yunnan) on Jan 11, 2024 speaks of new dynamics in Myanmar. It appears that an independent nation’s “ sovereignty” is under jeopardy.
At last, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the leading opposition group, was ordered to withdraw and obey the orders of their Kunming-based superiors. China is concerned about its initiatives in these regions, not the situation in Shan, Sagaing, or Rakhine. Has anyone recently heard a year ago that any Chinese installation or project was being targeted by PDF, LDF, or EAO? Actually, nobody, as China is skilled at spotting problems early.
The entire drama, which began on October 27, 2023, under the pretentious designation Ops. 1027, ended on its own. In essence, Kokangs were engaged in combat with other Kokangs over Laukkai, or the Kokang Self Administrative Zone (KSAZ). After the Kokang group with a base in China won Laukkai, the operation was cancelled and a cease-fire was agreed upon. China has the authority to change the dynamics in Myanmar to suit the circumstances.
China eventually reversed it after realising that the TNLA and MNDAA had been attempting to extend outside their own borders. China prioritises business over getting into disputes, but they are skilled at turning disputes into opportunities while putting the risks aside. Reading between the lines of the “ Haigeng Agreement” indicates that bilateral trade between China and Myanmar would resume and land customs will open.
For obvious reasons, Arakan Army, the mother of 3BHA, is keeping a low profile. Where there is no Chinese investment, in northern Rakhine, they are fighting. It appears that Yunnan is the centre of 3BHA’s command control, providing them with instructions on where to fight and where to protect their owners’ interests.
