~ Linn Maung ~
The resurgence of nationalistic positions across East Asia is often explained as a revival of historical grievances or domestic political mobilization. Yet such explanations increasingly fail to capture the contemporary drivers shaping regional attitudes. Recent tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan offer a more immediate and persuasive lens. Beijing’s large scale military exercises around the Taiwan Strait, coupled with its warning rhetoric directed at countries perceived to be ‘interfering’, have placed Japan in an unavoidable strategic spotlight. For Tokyo, the question of Taiwan is no longer a distant contingency but a proximate security concern, with Chinese missiles, naval activity, and air incursions unfolding in spaces directly adjacent to Japanese territory. Japan’s vocal responses and its willingness to openly link Taiwan’s stability to its own national security mark a notable departure from past restraint.
Such an episode illustrates a broader regional pattern. Nationalistic discourse in East Asia is not emerging in a vacuum, nor is it solely the product of internal political calculations. Rather, it reflects a reactive process in which regional powers are recalibrating identity, sovereignty and strategic autonomy in response to a more assertive Chinese posture. While Beijing frames its actions as defensive and rooted in historical rights, its expanding military footprint and coercive signalling have compelled neighbouring states, and political stakeholders within these countries, to harden their positions, often in ways that reinforce nationalist sentiment at home.
Persistent incidents around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and heightened Chinese military activities near Taiwan have fed a narrative in Tokyo that the security environment is more severe than at any time since the end of the Second World War. In response, Japan has embarked on a significant strategic shift, moving beyond its post-war focus on self-defence to a proactive security posture that includes a planned doubling of its defence budget to around two percent of GDP. Japan’s initiative to enhance strike-back capabilities, bolster coastal defences, and expand its defence industry reflects a sense of urgency rooted in regional dynamics. These developments, while controversial among domestic audiences, have found broad support as strategic necessities in the context of increased Chinese air and naval activities near Japanese territory.
The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis and associated Chinese military exercises have further reinforced Japan’s security anxieties. Tokyo publicly condemned these drills and linked them to broader threats to regional peace and stability, framing them as direct challenges to existing norms of peaceful dispute settlement and freedom of navigation. Japanese public opinion surveys and media commentary increasingly portray Beijing’s actions as destabilizing, contributing to a rise in nationalistic discourse that underscores the need for stronger deterrence and closer cooperation with allies.
At the same time, Japan has deepened defence cooperation with the Philippines in response to shared concerns over China’s maritime ambitions. The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), ratified by the Philippine Senate in late 2024, exemplifies an emerging security partnership that broadens Tokyo’s role beyond its immediate neighbourhood. By enabling mutual deployment of forces and facilitating joint exercises, this agreement signals a shift toward collective responses to coercive tactics by Beijing in contested waters.
Manila’s National Sentiment and the South China Sea Dispute
The Philippines too provides a clear example of how state and public sentiment can crystallize around national sovereignty concerns in the face of external pressure. Manila’s relationship with Beijing has seen considerable deterioration over disputes in the South China Sea, particularly around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. These contested maritime features lie within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but are claimed by China based on its expansive nine-dash line, a claim rejected by a 2016 international arbitration ruling under UNCLOS that Beijing refuses to accept.
A maritime collision incident in August 2025, involving Chinese coast guard and naval vessels and Philippine counterparts near Scarborough Shoal, became a focal point for nationalistic discourse in the Philippines. The confrontation, which resulted in damage to a Chinese cutter and heightened diplomatic tensions, was widely reported and criticized at home as evidence of Chinese disregard for Philippine sovereignty.
Manila’s evolving policy has shifted from cautious engagement to a more assertive posture, documented through legal initiatives and diplomatic efforts to reinforce its maritime claims. The Philippine government has also pursued expanded defence ties with external partners, notably through joint exercises with the United States and broader cooperation with Japan under the RAA framework. These relationships have become symbolic of a broader regional pushback against unilateral attempts to alter the status quo by force.
Public rhetoric in the Philippines increasingly frames China’s actions as aggressive and coercive, feeding into a growing sense of national unity around territorial defence. While policymakers in Manila continue to balance economic engagement with Beijing against security imperatives, there is little doubt that recurrent stand-offs in the South China Sea have contributed to a more vigilant national consciousness geared toward protecting sovereign rights.
Conclusion
Across East Asia, rising nationalistic stands in Japan and the Philippines reflect not only historical legacies and domestic politics but also a pragmatic response to shifting regional power dynamics. Beijing’s assertive behaviour in contested maritime spaces and its wider strategic ambitions have, intentionally or otherwise, contributed to these trends. While states in the region continue to pursue diplomatic avenues and emphasise peaceful dispute resolution, the perception of a coercive China has become a significant factor shaping public opinion and state policy.
Rishan Sen is an independent researcher focusing on Chinese foreign policy and its strategic footprints.
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