Linn Maung
A chain of events that have occurred since the coup in February 2021 have led to the conclusion that the coup was planned and carried out by the Junta with the assistance of only China’s northern neighbour, and that China bears a greater share of responsibility for the “tragic” situation in Myanmar. The Junta’s silence over Chinese interference in the dynamics of the EAO and its political goals in northern Myanmar demonstrates how China is applying pressure to the regime in order to forward her goals.
China’s foreign minister Qin Gang visited Myanmar in May 2023 and spoke privately with Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the junta. China’s investment in Myanmar over the past ten years is its biggest source of worry. Projects like BRI or CMEC are falling behind, especially in areas where resistance groups are in a stronghold. China is well aware of the limitations imposed on junta forces and there are concerns within Junta too over increasing defections and casualities. Although China’s close ties to the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA, TNLA, and MNDAA) are widely known, its deployment in southern Kachin and Sagaing Magwe has security repercussions for India, China’s western neighbour.
Similar agreements exist with separatist organisations operating in India’s north-eastern area, just as China maintains contacts with EAOs in Myanmar. There have been rumours for years that these separatist organisations had liaison offices in Ruili. China now wants to have control over Myanmar’s western border with India. China wants to complete its hallmark project, the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port. Once it is finished, attention will turn to the projected railway connecting Ruili to Kyaukphyu via Mandalay, which will alter the dynamics in Myanmar’s western area.
There are rumours that Daw Suu Kyi will meet with Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xigun. This demonstrates unequivocally that the Junta is allowing the Chinese to meddle in internal issues. Is this a requirement of the Junta government or a result of apprehension that the resistance movement may become more stronger in the coming days? Both China and Myanmar have security concerns, but their top priorities are different. Deng Xijun has been quite active, and his prior work in Myanmar and the ASEAN region has been beneficial. SAC PM Ming Aung Hlaing can be reached directly via Deng Xigun. As the West and the US have made every effort to isolate Myanmar, Myanmar has moved a step closer to China to defend its interests and stand internationally. No doubt Junta is currently envisioning greater strength in China due to obvious reasons.
Chinese diplomats enjoy access to every nook and cranny of Myanmar, whereas foreign diplomats’ freedom of movement is constrained. According to accounts, Chinese investment has increased significantly since the coup, particularly in the mining and energy sectors. Both the public and private sectors are included. To boost bilateral trade, export and import taxes have been lowered.
#MeKongNews
