Linn Maung
One of the CMEC’s signature projects, the railway connects Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar, to Muse, a town on the China-Myanmar border. It is anticipated to cost around US$9 billion. Muse is located on the Myanmar side of the Yunnan province of China border. Nearly half of the annual trade with China passes through it, making it the principal trade entry point on that border.
The Yunnan-Kyaukphyu Railway’s first memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in 2011, but it was never implemented due to Myanmar’s hesitation about building the railway in the face of escalating anti-China sentiments. However, the Muse-Mandalay railway is back on track as a part of the CMEC after a half-decade hiatus. The construction of this railroad must be understood in light of Myanmar’s internal politics and the current peace negotiations. Conflict worsened in Shan state, where there are seven EAOs that have not ratified the NCA, when the NLD gained control of the peace process in 2016. In Shan state, the railway will pass through a number of war zones, including territory held by the TNLA, AA, and MNDAA (Brotherhood Alliance). It is essentially a conflict area and it affects twelwe townships in total enroute.
It is evident that China is able to exacerbate and deescalate armed confrontations along its border in order to suit its own objectives due to its geographic proximity and deep social and economic relationships with EAOs. Senior officials in Myanmar believe that China has sent weapons to the EAOs near its border, either directly or indirectly.
In 2023, after meeting with Deng Xijun, China’s Special Envoy to Myanmar in Was State, representatives of the seven EAOs from the China-Myanmar border region traveled to Kunming as evidence of China’s influence over the EAOs. Guo Bao, the governor of Yunnan and the director general of the province’s public security department, met with the Brotherhood Alliance once more in June 2023 at Mongla, Shan State.
The EAOs based along the China-Myanmar border have made public statements endorsing a tolerant attitude toward China. The FPNCC released a declaration in 2023 that expresses China’s goals unequivocally. China is essentially following SAC’s directives to invite EAOs to the negotiating table. The AA has been involved in hostilities in the northern Rakhine state since January 2019, where numerous Indian projects are situated. However, Kyaukphyu, a city in Rakhine state as well, has up till now maintained a good level of calm thanks to Chinese investment. The BRI, including the Kyaukphyu seaport and special economic zone, was hailed by the AA on July 18, 2019, and they also expressed their willingness to work with China. The AA’s top brass has embraced China.As a result of these asymmetrical interactions, weaker groups like AA accept that powerful actors like China play the dominating role, though its compulsion.
In Myanmar, dynamics can shift extremely quickly. In 2013, in response to public protests over the Chinese state-owned firm investing in the Letpadaung copper mine project, the Myanmar government under Thein Sein established an investigative panel, which was presided over by ASSK (at the time a politician and leader of the opposition). She then adopted a practical stance toward China, stating that “ Myanmar needs to get along with China and maintain a good relationship” while also supporting the continuation of that contentious project. The degree to which Yangon could suit Chinese geopolitical objectives determined how positively China would participate in the peace process in Myanmar.
In light of this, the China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group and the Department of Railways signed a Memorandum of Understanding in October 2018 to carry out a feasibility study on the Muse-Mandalay railway under the auspices of the Myanmar Ministry of Transport and Communication.The Junta unilaterally declared a four-month ceasefire over a region in northern Myanmar that included the projected railway’s path two months after the Memorandum of Understanding was signed. It’s interesting to note that the feasibility study was finished during the ceasefire. The Northern Alliance launched a coordinated offensive in August 2019 along the railway’s path, severely harming bilateral trade and uprooting more than 6,000 people.
All of these events highlight how complicated Myanmar’s domestic politics are, as they involve a variety of elites and interest groups (such as the government, the military, and the EAOs), each with their own agendas. As a result, Myanmar’s disjointed political system and foreign policies complicate its China strategy and jeopardize its capacity to use China as a strategic counterbalance.
Ruili-Muse-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu Railway although it is mainly a transport corridor but once it gets operational, it will change the entire dynamics in Northern, Central and Western Myanmar poses additional security implication for neighbouring India.
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