Linn Maung
Armed civil strife has been pervasive in Myanmar since it earned independence from the British Empire in 1948 and infact it has come to define the country’s political environment. Since then, a number of approaches have been used to try to end the civil conflict. A new round of peace negotiations including at least 20 EAOs began in 2011 as a result of the democratisation campaign conducted by the Union Solidarity and Development Party(USDP) under the direction of President Thein Sein. According to their geographic areas of operation, Myanmar-based EAOs can generally be divided into two primary types, namely those headquartered near the Thai border and those based near the Chinese border.
The United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Army, the Shan State Progress Party, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) are among the EAOs that operate in the region of the China-Myanmar border. The EAOs in this area collectively account for more than 80% of all non-state combatants in Myanmar. Due to the existence of so many rival actors in the domestic political arena, China has been able to use them against one another to further its own objectives.
The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) of 2015 was ratified by the majority of EAOs in the Thai-Myanmar border region, but not by EAOs based in the China border region. China frequently declares their desire for stability, according to Min Zaw Oo, director of ceasefire negotiations and implementation at the Myanmar Peace Centre. Off course they want stability, but they also want to have a say in the groups that live near the Chinese border.
The NLD government gave national peace and reconciliation first priority and asked EAOs based in the China-Myanmar border area to join the NCA and take part in the official peace process, the Twenty-first Century Panglong Union Peace Conference. By 2017, seven EAOs from the China-Myanmar border region had formed a political coalition under the leadership of the UWSA, the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), which had expanded China’s influence over the peace process. All seven EAOs from the China-Myanmar border remained outside the NCA for the entire five-year period of the NLD-led peace process.
Due to its geographical proximity and socio-economic ties with the EAOs along its border with Myanmar, China is thought to have influence over the FPNCC. For instance, the UWSA, MNDAA and NDAA are FPNCC members who use Chinese Yuan as their main currency and Chinese telecommunications services. Mandarin and other Chinese dialects are primarily used for communication and a number of these organisations issue formal statements on the peace process in both Chinese and Burmese. More crucially, most of the weapons deployed by these EAOs are produced in China.
Although China denies arming the EAOs, the presence of artillery such as man-portable air-defence systems, armed fighting vehicles, and other advanced military equipment in the EAOs’ arsenals provides a glimpse of the extent of China’s influence over the peace process. Additionally, data from various open sources indicates that China is the country of origin for 48% of Myanmar’s arms imports.
After appointment of Special Chinese Envoy, Deng Xijun, to Myanmar in 2022, the engagement with EAOs got further cemented and statements issued by them shows Chinese interest. Presence of EAOs near Sino-Myanmar border gives all purpose edge to China and China uses this leverage to meet her interests in Myanmar.
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